Economic Conditions in the USA: An October-2025 Review

USA Economic News

OECD Upgrades Global Growth Forecast to 3.2% Despite ongoing trade tensions, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has upgraded its forecast for the global economy, predicting a 3.2% growth rate for 2025. The report highlights the resilience of the U.S. economy, which has outperformed expectations even in the face of new tariffs and trade wars. However, the organization warned that the "de minimis" exemption removal for low-value imports is beginning to squeeze small businesses, creating a complex outlook for the retail sector heading into the new year.

Small Businesses Struggle After "De Minimis" Exemption Removal New data released today indicates that U.S. small businesses are facing rising costs following the elimination of the "de minimis" exemption, which previously allowed imports under $800 to enter the country tariff-free. The policy change, intended to curb the influx of low-quality goods and illicit substances, has inadvertently hit independent retailers who rely on affordable imported inventory. Business associations are reporting a spike in operational costs and customer complaints regarding price hikes, signaling a potential inflationary ripple effect in the niche retail market.

BEA Reports Narrowing Trade Deficit in Q2 2025 The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its third estimate for Q2 2025, showing that Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8%. A key driver of this growth was a significant narrowing of the U.S. current-account deficit, which fell by nearly 43% to $251.3 billion. The data suggests that while imports have decreased—likely due to new trade barriers—consumer spending remains robust, helping to stabilize the broader economy despite fluctuations in the investment sector.

Rockefeller Foundation Pushes Nuclear Energy for Emerging Markets A new report from the Rockefeller Foundation, released today, argues that next-generation nuclear energy technologies are essential for powering emerging economies. The report suggests that Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) could provide up to 20% of the electricity generation for rapidly growing nations like Brazil and India by 2050. This aligns with a growing interest in the U.S. energy sector to export nuclear technology as a tool for both economic growth and climate diplomacy, positioning American companies to lead in the global transition to clean baseload power.

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